I saw an interview of someone who had a very temporary celebrity talking about real celebrities. I wish I could remember who it was, it would make a better story. Anyway, this person said celebrities behave pretty much like you'd expect; the only thing that surprised him was they don't dial the phone for themselves. They say, "Get me [whoever]" and someone dials the number for them, gets the person on the line and then hands them the phone. I don't know how I got started thinking about this but it made me wonder, "Do they get someone to change the channels on their television for them?" Because that shit is complicated. Any idiot can dial a phone but you need a PhD in electronic engineering to figure out how to use someone else's television. I was babysitting my four year old nephew and I had to get him to turn on the TV so he could watch cartoons (I'm a crap babysitter). So I could easily understand it if celebrities, who are so above the pedestrian interface with simple technology, can run their own televisions. Then I started thinking about computers - because I've recently bought a new one and it's giving me a huge pain in the ass and I'm relatively computer literate. My parents can only work their email and nothing else. I've set their home computer up so the three things they want to do they can do by pressing one of three buttons (and then I wrote out the instructions, for the library press the button that says "Library"...). My parents aren't stupid, far from it, but they have been left behind by technology. They didn't even have TV's in their houses until they were almost adults. Radio was high tech when they were my nephews age. And since most Heads of State are either grandparents or old enough to be grandparents I started wondering how many of them can use a computer. How many Presidents and Prime Ministers can do something as simple as a Google search?
Doesn't that seem like a relevant question? These are the people charged with running our countries, our economies. Shouldn't they have at least a basic understanding that the internet (and massive computational and data storage capabilities) change the way the economy works?
I've been trying to put myself in the shoes of a Libertarian and, if you pretend you know nothing about any technology more advanced than the telegraph, it's a pretty seductive vision. Imagine a world where the government didn't make you do shit - no licenses to be renewed, no passports, no income tax forms, no paperwork of any kind. The government used a flat tax and you could figure out how much you owed by multiplying your income by .15 - that's it. No rebates, no deductions, no loopholes, no dependents, no "Add Column 15 with Column 9 and divide by sub-total A4". You and the calculator that has been sitting in your desk since you were in Grade 9. Imagine starting a business by hanging a sign. No files, no lawyers, no bullshit. You can pay for a big ad in the phone book if you want but your number will get listed for free. No websites, no tweeting, no "social media presence". It really is a strange kind of Utopia (although we know from the time that was actually the case, it wasn't a Utopia at all). It works if you forget you have about a thousand times more computing power in your pocket right now than NASA used to put Neil Armstrong on the moon (and you have really big, really bright rose glasses).
I have moments when I think Jaron Lanier is a genius and moments when I think he needs to get over himself but he is pretty much dead on when he writes about the internet revolutionizing the nature of monopolies. You don't need to crush your competitors, just make better software that is easier to navigate and faster. That's all you need to corner something - get there first with the most computational power. Let's use his example of taxis. I have no idea how taxis are dispatched right now but the person who creates the software that optimizes routes, reduces wait times and charges (because of efficiency and nothing else) is going to own that industry. And if that software is proprietary, goodbye independent taxis. One big button on your iPhone that calls the cab to your location, knows where you are going, knows road and traffic conditions, can optimize all of that for fleet and individual efficiency? Anyone else is fucked. That's one example and I think it's a good one.
Another example, not from Lanier, concerns commodities trading, oil in particular. It used to be illegal for anyone other than the producer or the end user to buy oil in the US. Each barrel of oil was sold either once or twice (twice being the average). The refinery sold it to either the business that used it or the business that retailed it. Then someone pointed out that farmers would benefit from being able to buy their oil at fixed prices before they needed it - the birth of the modern future. Farms had changed from animal power to diesel power - the cost of the animals was a relative constant but the cost of fuel varied. So to protect the farmers it became legal to buy oil futures. Now an average barrel of oil changes hands somewhere around 150 times before it is consumed. Each transaction resulting in a higher price (even if the price of oil decreases the transaction charges add up). And anyone can bid up the price when they know there is going to be demand - like Zuckerburg's friend in The Social Network (and presumably in real life).
Technology has enormous impact on politics. It's impact on the economy is almost impossible to overstate. Shouldn't the person in charge of your country be aware of how this shit works? Because, frankly, I don't see my Prime Minister programming his own DVR and that makes the complexities of applying changes in technology to economics way out of his depth.
Of course, I did just kind of fuck with my own argument. Stating I can't work my brother's TV and them declaiming on the effects of massive data storage and computational power. On the other hand, I don't run a G*d damn thing. I definitely don't set economic policy for a whole country.
Maybe the answer is to bring back the draft. But instead of drafting kids and making them fight wars for minimum wage, draft the people who know the most about shit and get them to help run the economy and suggest tax policy and consider issues of social welfare, education, socialized medicine, etc. And don't pay them minimum wage, pay them a good salary. Oh shit, we already have those people - they work in Universities and we call them professors.
I bet Obama can do shit on a computer. I doubt Romney could. He paid people to do that for him. Bush the Lesser probably couldn't turn a computer on. Good with a chainsaw cutting brush on the ranch, not such hot shit with modern technology. Clinton? He learned how to do whatever he wanted with his computer as soon as he found out he could watch porn on it.
No comments:
Post a Comment