On NTE (Near Term Extinction)

There is a group of reputable scientists (currently small but growing) who, in light of the massive preponderance of research on anthropogenic climate change, think the Near Term Extinction of the human species is not only possible or even probable, but inevitable. They differ, where they differ, on two principle points: the amount of time we have remaining (the definition of "near") and whether the human species will disappear entirely or suffer such a dramatic population loss that extinction will necessarily result (the definition of "extinction"). But whether the human species has fifty, one hundred, or two hundred years remaining or whether we will go with a bang or a whimper seems largely immaterial when faced with the proposition we have already sealed our own fate.

One of the central premises of NTE is there is no threshold left to cross. We have already passed not just one but many points of no return (or point of no returns?). In a very real sense our extinction is already happening. As Daniel Drumright puts in, "The evidence is quite explicit in detailing that the Holocene is exponentially drawing to a close. The geological epoch which [sic] has housed the entire history of civilization... is ending, if it hasn't ended already."

If correct, this certainly qualifies as big news. As far as humanity is concerned, it's the biggest news ever. Even if it is incorrect, and it would have to be massively incorrect for the error to be meaningful, it is still news. I mean by that, if NTE is not really extinction but a 99% reduction in the human population those scientists who believe in NTE are not wrong in any meaningful sense. Or if the extinction of our species requires three centuries (instead of happening this century), NTE is still correct. For it to be meaningfully incorrect, we would have to be able to avert a catastrophic population loss without, say, abandoning the planet. Still, if historians look back on NTErs are say, "what a bunch of lunatics" it is still news for a fairly important reason.

There have, throughout human history, been those who proclaimed, "The end is nigh!" As Christopher Hitchens pointed out, when Jesus said, "Take no thought for the morrow" (Matthew 6:34) he was either proclaiming the end times or an immoral and wicked man. The history of apocalyptic pronouncements needs no elaboration - it is a common feature across cultures and times, just part of the human condition. At least, until recently.

The history of rational man is very short. And by rational man I mean nothing more than some tiny percentage of the population using reason to govern their actions and opinions some small percentage of the time. In the West, rationality has only been a factor in our society for about 400 years. But some striking things about those 400 years are evident for anyone who wishes to see. First, at no point during the last 400 years have rational men used rational means to argue the end is nigh. In fact, there has been a general consensus (until the second half of the last century) that science and rationality would solve all human problems and we would reach a point where we knew all the answers to all the questions. We would then use reason to determine our goals and reason to achieve them, thus ending history. There has even been a consensus about how long it would take to reach that point. About one hundred years. If you asked a group of rational people in 1600 how long it would take until science and reason had solved every problem, the consensus would have been "about one hundred years". Same in 1700. Same in 1800. Einstein and Heisenberg kind of fucked us on that one. O well.

So NTE theorists (or believers or whatever) are unique in that they are proclaiming the end times based on the same methods by which we were supposed to avoid the end times (and make all believers in such things seem ridiculous). They might also be unique in being correct. Given human nature if the end does come there's bound to be some squabbling about who called it first and who got the reason right. If NTE is correct we can at least be thankful that ugly little episode will be short-lived.

It looks to me like one of two things is true. Either we are all going to die (and, significantly, at the same time) or we are going to realize science has produced its first crop of end timers. I, for one, would prefer the latter though I don't suppose my preference will have much effect on the outcome.